Do you also abandon me? Calviño asked BBVA

First, it was the defection of the CEOE, which finally realized that the third vice president, Yolanda Diaz, manipulated them. It is no longer so easy for the communist to reach agreements on labor matters. Second, it was the INE, which lowered GDP growth to 1.1% in the second quarter when the Government boasted of 2.8%. Stab at the macroeconomic picture of the General State Budget project for 2022.

Third, the flight of Iberdrola and the electricity companies, resorting to the PNV to prevent benefits from being plundered by decree. The IMF recently substantially lowered the increase in GDP for 2021 forecast by the Government (6.5%). In addition, the governor of the Bank of Spain has become critical of the drift of the economic measures of the Government, which he accuses of being ideologized. Now it is the BBVA study service that is throwing the Government’s forecasts out of the water, leaving this year’s growth at 5.2%.

It is possible that Calvinoeconomic vice president, has addressed Charles Torrespresident of BBVA, and said the famous phrase of Jesus to his disciples when he explained the Passion that he had to suffer: do you also abandon me?

Because Calviño’s Passion has begun. Accounts of him are turning into tales. Stories that he has to explain to Brussels, where he still has prestige. Prestige that Sánchez, with his government partners and parliamentary allies, are going to undermine. Prestige that we Spaniards still need so that the supplies of the 140,000 million euros of the Next Generation or EU recovery funds are not cut off.

Calviño’s Passion has begun. The accounts of him are turning into tales

Little by little, those responsible for business decisions in Spain are abandoning the vice president. These echoes are reaching international markets. They have already arrived and hence, the least direct investment in Spain. In the end they will also reach Brussels and other community institutions, such as the ECB. Then the prestige of our economic leaders will be questioned.

But BBVA has not completely abandoned Vice President Calviño; she has been prudent in her forecasts. Readers remember that I have been insisting that I don’t think we will grow above 5%. That’s why I think your study service must have been moderated. After all, a company of its size should not get too wet against political power. Another thing is what they say internally.

For example, with regard to inflation, it seems to me that he has been prudent in stating that, although we will finish with the 4% increase in the CPI (Consumer Price Index) at the end of 2021, with an average of 2.8% in the year, this study service forecasts 1.8% for 2022.

In my opinion, if their forecasts come true in 2021, the unions of the big companies will have no choice but to request that wages be revised upwards in the first half of 2022. Yes, in addition, the Government complies with its desire to raise the Minimum Interprofessional Salary (SMI) to 1,000 euros at the beginning of 2022, that will also push the hierarchical salary scale. Above all, in sectoral agreements that do not take into account the characteristics of each company in particular.

Some SMEs are holding back on their price increases for fear that demand will drop. But if labor costs are added to the increase in energy costs and the lack of some supplies, in the end they will rise. That will fuel inflation in a country of services like ours, in which the weight of wages in the final product is high.

So the BBVA study service has not yet completely abandoned Calviño and his macroeconomic forecasts. Has been moderate and cautiousboth in the rise in GDP in 2021 (which will be lower), and in inflation in 2022 (which will be higher).

The end will be when the CIS, chaired by José Félix Tezanos, declares the PP the winner against the PSOE in one of its famous and made-up polls. Then, Sánchez will say what Cesar exclaimed in his murder: Bruto, you too, my son? Are you Tezanos too, my sociologist?

*** JR Pin is a professor at IESE.

Hisense, Photo: Hisense