Some Budgets in the worlds of Yupi

These days many criticisms have been made of the General State Budget Bill for 2022, but what is its greatest sin has usually been overlooked: that they are procyclical budgets. That is to say, some budgets that, although they are based on the government’s expectation of strong growth for 2022, insist on reinforcing this already very strong economic recovery with a large increase in public spending, until reaching 7%. Much of that 7% growth in GDP will just be increased government spending.

Economic policy measures that accentuate the prevailing trend at any given time are called “procyclical” and those that try to offset the prevailing trend are called “countercyclical”. When there is a recession, countercyclical policy consists of increasing public spending and lowering interest rates and, when there is a very strong recovery, the opposite is normally done (that is, raising interest rates and reducing public spending: with them the consumerist euphoria or real estate speculation is stopped).

It is the responsibility of governments and central banks to understand what is appropriate at all times, and just as it would have been suicidal (“austericidal”) to make procyclical budgets for the year and a half that the acute phase of the pandemic has lasted (what that in that case it would have meant having reduced spending instead of increasing it) it also does not seem very appropriate that, when the economies are in clear recovery, the government wants to show off with an even greater recovery increasing public spending.

We must insist on praising both the Spanish government and most other governments for adopting an “anti-cyclical” policy during the pandemic: during recessions, anti-cyclical policies are adopted precisely to fight against the calamities of the recessive cycle.

But now that things are much better, that consumption and real estate investment are bordering on euphoria in many countries: does it make sense to push the euphoria even further, which is what a procyclical policy will do? Would it not be better, if not openly countercyclical policies, that they were at least neutral?

Inflation rising

There are problems that can arise from these procyclical policies. The most obvious and traditional of all is the increase in inflation. But also the fact that this increase in demand that the budgets will promote will occur at a time when supply is falling, with which we will see the worst of all worlds: more demand and less supply, which will add another round of inflation to the already existing of an expansionary cycle.

Because the world is now suffering from what economists call a supply shock. sui generiswhich is being translated into fewer products on the market (whether semiconductors or motor vehicles; Christmas toys or fertilizers and even CO2, necessary for the preservation of some foods) and also shortage of some raw materials(fundamentally natural gas: European stocks are very low for this time of year, only two months away from winter) which is causing induced effects of an increase in the price of electricity and everything that needs gas or electricity to be produced or be preserved (food).

There are problems that can arise from these procyclical policies. The most obvious and traditional of all is the increase in inflation

Also, incidentally, it is forcing the partial “lockout” of industrial plants that make intensive use of electricity in order to reduce their costs (in Spain, Sidenor, ArcelorMittal and Fertiberia).

In short, budgets They aim to increase demand when there is a decrease in supply.. A complicated situation for which neither this nor any government is directly responsible (although they are partially so due to some of their improvident policies such as those of the so-called Green Agenda) and that comes as a consequence of having stopped the global economy to combat the pandemic, and the corresponding mess that has occurred in global trade flows, which are now strangely clogged.

Trade imbalance risk

Another problem with the fact that the Spanish economy grows much more than those of other countries (something that the Prime Minister usually drops with pride in his public appearances) is the increase in imports and the relative decrease in exports with what that an eventual deficit in the balance of payments on the current account is encouraged, which would have to be financed with savings from abroad. And more so in a case like that of Spain, which has to matter almost all fossil energy it consumes and many other raw materials, at very high prices, after being depressed for 13 years.

To make matters worse, all of this may be happening in an environment of slowing economies: from China, immersed in its real estate default crisis and plagued by power outages and industry stoppages to save energy, to that of the US, which, with the latest data, already seems to have grown last quarter at a rate of only 0.29% quarterly.

In the history of the European socialist parties there is an unforgettable example of such errors: the one committed by the President of the French Republic, Francois Mitterrand, in the first three years of his government, left the Union of the Left. While the whole world was in recession, in 1980-1981, Mitterrand insisted that the French economy grow and applied a program of expansion of public spending.

Exaggerating, it can be said that nobody bought French products, but they did sell to a France that increased the purchasing power of its citizens. The result was that it became unsustainable and caused several devaluations of the currency (the French franc, then) and finally the departure of the communists from the government accompanied by a radical change in economic policy.

euro depreciation

The situation of the European industry, so vulnerable at the moment due to the lack of components and the rise in energy prices (along with the threat of a trade war with the United Kingdom) makes an additional depreciation of the euro foreseeable, which will make the price of everything that is imported from countries outside the Eurozone.

Thus, to the 150% that the price of gas has risen so far this year (this was the case at the worst moment a few days ago) we must add a rise of almost 7% that has lowered the price of the euro against the dollar from Kings. This will further threaten the trade balance (the Spanish current account balance accumulates five months with a surplus: 4,600 million euros in the first seven months of the year).

Does the government believe its growth forecasts?

Thinking in a very twisted way, one could reach the conclusion that the government does not believe its forecasts of economic growth for the same reasons indicated above of deterioration of the global economy and that, by increasing public spending so strikingly, what it is doing are not procyclical policies but preventive countercyclical ones, but without telling anyone, just in case. A situation in which everything that grew in the Spanish GDP was due to the increase in public spending.

In this way, if the global economy stopped growing, the Spanish economy would have adequately covered itself to maintain a growth rate of 2% or 3%. And if, on the contrary, China, the US and Germany resume strong growth (in an ideal situation in which the global bottlenecks disappear and pre-pandemic normalcy is restored) the government will not care about the imbalances and will apply the long live the present fugitive! And the problems and imbalances… for the future.

This preventive approach (if it were the case, and if not, also) is only possible by the injection of money created out of thin air that the central banks are doing, directly or channeled through the Next Generation funds of the European Union.

Something that is causing a bipolar situation in which, for 18 months, consumers do not know if they are living in Mordor (due to the terror caused by the Covid-19 mortality and the subsequent economic recession) or in the worlds of Yupi where nothing happens to have an unsustainable public deficit and where you can continue living off the air. Or both at the same time. Waking up will not be very pleasant.

Fire in a pine forest in Galicia in 2020.

How are the main tax novelties of the Anti-Fraud Law going to impact us?

The author explains the great changes that will affect taxation with the new anti-fraud regulations.

Published in the BOE of last Saturday, July 10, 2021, and with entry into force the day after its publication, except for some provisions in which its effects are delayed 3 months, the law has been enacted whose title already gives an idea of ​​the multiple scope that regulates: “Law on measures to prevent and combat tax fraud, transposing Directive (EU) 2016/164 of the Council, of July 12, 2016”.

It establishes rules against tax avoidance practices that directly affect the functioning of the internal market, modification of various tax regulations and in terms of gambling regulation.

As a general summary, we can anticipate that the rights and guarantees of taxpayers, the vast majority of whom are not fraudsters, are giving way due to the repressive norms of those punishable activities that limit and constrain, progressively and continuously, the scope of personal freedom of all citizens, to limits where one wonders if the remedy is not worse than the disease.

Thus, we briefly summarize some of the most relevant novelties of the law:

A.- CORPORATE TAX:

-In relation to the taxation of the tacit capital gain in case of transfer of domicile of an entity within the scope of the European Union (Exit Tax).

It accrues when a taxpayer moves his assets or his fiscal residence out of the tax jurisdiction of the State of residence, to tax the economic value of any capital gain created in its territory (even if that capital gain has not yet been realized at the time of departure). ).

The new rule replaces the deferral regime previously provided for in the case of a change of residence of an entity to another Member State of the EU or the European Economic Area that has entered into a mutual assistance agreement with Spain in matters of collection of tax credits, for the tacit capital gains generated before their transfer until the moment in which the patrimonial elements were transferred to third parties, by an immediate accrual regime on the occasion of the change of residence, although the installment by equal annual fifths is allowed, in the fiscal year transfer and in the following four years, at the request of the taxpayer.

This provision is applied with similar characteristics in the case of taxpayers subject to IRNR who transfer both an isolated element and their activity as a whole to a State with the characteristics indicated in the previous paragraph.

-The regime of the Variable Capital Investment Companies (SICAV), is modified without great importance, establishing new requirements that reinforce their collective nature and avoid their use as a single-person investment vehicle through the use of fictitious partners (“mariachis”). Thus, to compute the minimum number of partners, a minimum investment level of 2,500 euros per partner (12,500 in the case of investment companies by compartments) is required, and entities must maintain a register of partners during the tax prescription period.

B.- PERSONAL INCOME TAX:

– Obligation to declare the virtual currencies and the collections and payments made with them. With effect from July 11, 2021, regulations are established that allow the verification of the taxpayer’s obligation to declare in the Wealth Tax and in the Income Tax, the value and profits derived from such assets.

-On the taxpayer’s side, the obligation to inform about the virtual currencies located abroad, of which he is the owner, has the status of beneficiary or authorized or in some way holds the power of disposition, is established; guarded by persons or entities that provide services to safeguard private cryptographic keys on behalf of third parties, to maintain, store and transfer virtual currencies. This obligation is reinforced by the imposition of a penalty of 5,000 euros for each piece of information that should have been declared with a minimum of 10,000 euros.

-On the side of the depository person or entity, the obligation of persons residing in Spain or abroad, who provide services to safeguard private cryptographic keys on behalf of third parties, to maintain, store or transfer virtual currencies, is established, the obligation to provide the Tax Administration with information on all the virtual currencies that are kept in custody, including the balances in each virtual currency or in cash, identifying the authorized holders or beneficiaries of such balances.

This obligation extends to communicating the acquisition, transmission, exchange and transfer operations in which they intervene or mediate, presenting a nominal list of intervening subjects with an indication of their address, tax identification number, class and number of virtual currencies, their price and operation date.

C.- TAX ON ASSETS TRANSMISSIONS AND DOCUMENTED LEGAL ACTS:

-A modification is incorporated, apparently minor but of considerable importance in the liquidation of this tax in the form of onerous property transfers related to real estate. Until now, the tax base was determined by reference to the “real value” of the transferred property, an indeterminate legal concept of conflicting fixation.

It is replaced by the concept of “value” equating it to “market value” defined as “the most likely price for which a good could be sold free of charges between independent parties.” In addition, it is presumed, unless there is evidence to the contrary, that the market value will be the reference value set in the electronic office of the General Directorate of Cadastre. It is an undoubted improvement in legal certainty related to the cost of real estate acquisitions.

D.- TAX ON WEALTH:

-In relation to the regulations of the Autonomous Community applicable to non-residents, the right to apply the regulations approved by the Autonomous Community where the highest value of assets and rights for all non-resident taxpayers is located. Initially this right was not granted to non-residents, later it was extended to EU residents to avoid the discriminatory treatment that had been observed in court.

With this modification, the application of the regulations of the Autonomous Community in which most of the assets are located is extended to all non-residents. Thus, the lien of the non-resident who owns only one property, a frequent case, is equated to the lien of residents.

E.- GENERAL TAX LAW:

– Prohibition of tax amnesties. With the dubious practical effects that it may have to avoid future legislative modifications, it is provided “… the establishment of any extraordinary instrument of fiscal regularization that may imply a reduction of the tax debt accrued in accordance with current regulations is prohibited.”

-Modification of the system of surcharges for extemporaneous presentation of declarations.

The new applicable surcharge is 1% plus an additional 1% for each full month of delay with which the self-assessment or declaration is filed with respect to the term established for filing and payment. If the presentation is made after 12 months have elapsed from the end of the period established for the presentation, the surcharge will be 15%.

In addition, the regularization corresponding to other periods of the same tax concept that has been regularized by the Administration without sanction is excluded from the surcharge, provided that it is regularized before 6 months from the liquidation.

The previous system (5% in the first 3 months, 15% thereafter until the end of the year and 20% thereafter, plus interest on arrears) entailed a “jumping error” that discouraged filing returns in intermediate periods.

– Prohibition of production and possession of computer programs or systems that allow the manipulation of accounting and management data, It establishes (…) the obligation on the part of producers, marketers and users that the computer or electronic systems and programs that support the accounting processes of invoicing or management of those who develop economic activities, guarantee the integrity, conservation, accessibility, legibility, traceability and inalterability of the records.

Without interpolations, omissions or alterations of which the proper annotation is not left in the systems themselves. This provision is reinforced with an extremely onerous sanctioning regime, which incurs in a debatable “punitive copyright law”: the mere production of systems or programs that allow the manipulation of accounting and management data, or possession without adequate certification. , will be sanctioned with a fixed fine of 150,000 euros, for each year and for each system if they have been sold and 50,000 euros if they have not been sold to third parties, for their simple possession.

Operations in which any of the parties involved act as an entrepreneur or professional for an amount equal to or greater than 1,000 euros or its equivalent in foreign currency cannot be paid in cash.

-Judicial authorization to enter the domicile of the taxpayers. The need for prior judicial authorization for the entry into the domicile of the taxpayers is confirmed and the terms of the application agreement that must be formulated by the Administration are established, although this agreement (and the entry requested) is allowed to be prior to the start of the administrative procedure in question, must be duly justified and reasoned in relation to the purpose, necessity and proportionality of said entry, all in accordance with the jurisprudence of the Supreme Court.

-Modifications of the law of notaries in relation to the deregistration in the fiscal census of entities. It is modified to ensure that entities that have been removed from the tax census of legal entities cannot make entries in any public registry, nor grant deeds before a notary.

For these purposes, the obligation to include the tax identification number in the public deed by which any type of legal entity is created or constituted is expressly confirmed, and the provision of a computerized system through which the General Council of the Notaries will provide the Tax Administration with the identification of those entities with a revoked tax identification number that have tried to grant a public document.

-Limitation of cash payments. Operations in which any of the parties involved act as an entrepreneur or professional for an amount equal to or greater than 1,000 euros or its equivalent in foreign currency cannot be paid in cash. This limit is set at 10,000 for private individuals with tax domicile outside of Spain.

***F. Javier Rodriguez Santos He is a partner of the law firm B. Cremades & Asociados

Where to invest in the stock market today: Bankinter, CaixaBank, Telefónica and Neinor Homes

Analysis of the best options to know where to invest now and which are the most interesting investments for today’s session.

trading opportunities

The selective spanish says goodbye to 8,500 points in a session that ended with a strong rebound on Wall Street and therefore a rebound can be generated in today’s session.

However, as long as we do not see prices above the medium-term moving average of 8,632 points, the risk of seeing more profit-taking It is very high.

In any case, no matter what happens, we always have a set of values ​​that are doing tremendously well and several of them are worth being in my dashboard. They are in a very important technical momentin addition to having many investors attentive to them.

What should you invest in according to your age?:

1) Bankinter: We need to see closings above 5.18 euros to assess the possibility of continuing towards 5.33 and if you can with them continue towards 5.87 euros.

2) CaixaBank: If it manages to be placed above 2.78 euros we can see an additional section until testing the recent maximums at 2,926 euros with a protective stop at the lows of the session in which those 2.78 euros are made.

3) Telephone: Pay attention to the resistance of 4.16 euros which has value because its break opens up a scenario of continued bullishness up to the area of ​​4.49 euros.

4) Neinor Homes: We will have to be attentive to what happens with the resistance of the 12 euros since it would generate a new buy signal with a target of 12.60 euros.

Evolution of values ​​under monitoring

Evolution of values ​​under monitoring
Eduardo BolinchesVisualChart

Caser Asesores enlarges its network of agents in Madrid with Álvaro Sevillano, former head of CoreCapital

He ceased as president, general director and director last spring when he clashed with the Ballvé family (Campofrío).

Caser Financial Advisors offices.

Caser Financial Advisors reinforces its network of agents in Madrid with the incorporation of a heavyweight in the industry, Alvaro Sevillanowho until a few months ago was the head of the family office CoreCapital Finance.

Sevillano, who co-founded CoreCapital, stepped down as chairman, CEO and director last spring colliding with the Ballvé family (Campofrío), main customer of family officeas reported by this newspaper.

With more than 15 years of experience in the sector, Sevillano had previously worked in other relevant positions, as an independent professional at Bankinter, advising large assets, and at other entities such as Banif Banca Privada, Morgan Stanley, Caixa Banca Privada, Lloyds TSB Bank and Deutsche Bank.

The new signing comes to join the team of more than 35 financial agents that are part of the network specialized in financial advice that the Caser Group launched in 2019 and that it directs Helen Calaforra.

Thus, professionals such as Javier Ballarat, Álvaro Merino, Reyes Barquero, Susana Checa, Juan Pablo Ordovás or Mario Durán, among others, have joined the specialized entity in 2021, which closed the 2020 financial year with a net growth of 185 million euros and more than 800 clients.

The meters return: the OJD in June and the EGM confirms that it will give data in November

The confinement is over for the data of the main media in Spain.

A rotary press of a paper newspaper in a stock image

The main gauges of media audiences have begun their de-escalation. As confirmed invested, Enter (OJD) hopes to return in June to certify the diffusion of its print media and the AIMC (EGM) it will begin its field work in September, to have data in November.

In this way, the new normal will be able to have data from all media and communication media in the coming weeks. Let us remember that the Office for the Justification of Dissemination (OJD) allowed its associates to suspend control of its dissemination since mid-March this year.

Most of the headlines claimed “exceptional effects” of the coronavirus crisis and the confinement that prevented newspapers from being distributed normally. Since the state of alarm was decreed, printed newspapers have had difficulty deliver their mastheads to their subscribers and sell copies at newsstands.

In the sector it is recognized that during these two weeks the diffusion fell very significantly, and in a very abnormal way, so they preferred to exclude this distribution so as not to “contaminate” the sample for the month of March. A situation that has been maintained throughout the state of alarm, including the months of April and June.

However, these exceptional circumstances end with the end of the state of alarm that ends on June 21. In this way, industry sources indicate that the publishers could no longer allege these extraordinary causes and indicate that with certainty, it will return to normal and the printed newspapers will be measured again in the last week of June.

General Media Study

In this sense, July will be the first month in which a full month will be counted again, after February of this year. We are, therefore, facing the longest period of absence of measurement: four months.

In the case of General Media Study (EGM), On March 16, and taking into account the exceptional situation of Covid-19, the AIMC Board of Directors decided to temporarily suspend the start of the field work of the second wave of the EGM.

Finally, the Board of Directorsheld at the end of March on an extraordinary basis, decided permanently suspend the second wave of the EGM this year, “given the impossibility of carrying out the field work normally, due to the state of alarm and the related confinement measures.”

Comscore and Kantar

In this sense, from the AIMCthe body that performs the EGM, has been confirmed to invested that the field work will resume in September, so that on November 2 the audience data of the main media corresponding to the third wave will be known again. It will therefore go from the first known wave in April, to the third, without carrying out the second.

During the entire state of alarm, the digital measurements that did not require a physical presence, such as the EGM field study, have been maintained.telephone and face-to-face surveys– and the OJD -which regularly requires visits to the printing centers of the newspapers-.

In this sense, Comscore and Kantar managed to continue certifying internet and television audiences, respectively. Similarly, OJD also continued to audit digital media.

What if the price of natural gas had already reached its maximum of this cycle?

Anyone who had ever heard the minister of the branch (Teresa Ribera) on October 5 (or to the experts in the sector on TV around the same time) that gas prices would continue to rise until January 2022, the normal thing is that I would have thought that, if the price of natural gas that day was at 6 $.5 (per million British thermal units) for the month of January would be much higher.

With much more reason when the minister had assured, very seriously, that the forecast she had made is what some omniscient futures markets assured would happen.

Nevertheless, At the end of last week, the price of natural gas had not only not risenbut it was lower: at $5.28 (20% less).

Have the futures markets been wrong or was the minister confused in telling it? Neither things. What happens is that the futures markets on the price of natural gas (like those of other raw materials) do not tell us, as the minister seems to have been told, the future price of gas, but the price that must be pay today to have it delivered to us in the future. That is, the word “future” refers not so much to the price as to the delivery time of the merchandise.

They don’t buy the gas today to take it home today. They buy it today to have it delivered (for example) in the next month of January

And the thing is that there are such strange people… They don’t buy gas today to take it home today. They buy it today to have it delivered (for example) in the next month of January, and it is that price of a delivery deferred until January that turns out to be the most expensive at this time. More expensive than delivery in November and December.

This is applicable both for the prices that could be contracted on October 5 and for those of today. In both cases the price for delivery in January is higher than that for immediate delivery.

And why is that January delivery price higher? Because whoever sells you the gas today, but is going to deliver it to you in January, has financing and storage costs until then that, naturally, the buyer will want to pay: the poor little guy who sells it to you does enough to keep it bought and stored until the date the buyer wants it to be delivered…

Who bought on October 5 to have natural gas delivered in the same month paid 6.5 dollars, but if he wanted it for the month of January he paid 6.8

To make it clearer: whoever bought on October 5 to have natural gas delivered in the same month paid 6.5 dollars (per million British thermal units), but if he wanted it for the month of January, he paid 6.8.

On the other hand, whoever bought natural gas last Friday afternoon to have it delivered this week paid $5.28, while those who wanted it for January paid 28 cents more; i.e. 5.56.

You can see that those who made it last Friday have made a much better purchase, whether they wanted the immediate delivery of the gas or if they wanted it to be sent home in January (naturally these are wholesale markets and not they would send it home to no one but to the storage depots of some large industrial company).

This highlights that nobody knows what the price of gas for immediate delivery will be when the harsh winter arrives. What is known for certain (with the current structure of the futures market, which is called, by the way, contango) is that buying today for deferred delivery is more expensive than buying for immediate delivery.

And that is what seemed to be the inaccuracy or the inadequate way of telling the minister. Someone should explain to him that the highest price is not necessarily going to be paid in January (although it could be) but that what everyone wants is to have a guaranteed supply for that month.

Have we already seen the highest price of gas in this cycle of rising prices? It could be yes, although the probability is quite low

And hence the purchases for delivery within that period, which can lead the gas market agents to suspect something (another Philomena Storm?) about gas supply mismatches by then, which makes them pay a premium to have it insured at a known price. But by passing, passing, anything can happen. Even a relatively mild January would drive prices down by then.

Therefore, all that can be done is to speculate intellectually (in addition to being able to do so in the markets) about which month gas will be most expensive, and what the price level will be when that month arrives.

Normally, those cabals about prices are done in a well-reasoned manner, and with the best technical language, by those who work every day in the business of buying and selling natural gas, and not by those who watch the bulls from the sidelines, but that is no guarantee that they will do it with more success than these. And all due to the degree of randomness so high that it has everything related to the future prices of any commodity.

Well, we’re going to do a few of those guesses to try to guess the answer to the headline of the column: have we already seen the highest price of gas in this cycle of price increases? It could be that yes, although the probability is quite low: 15%.

There is something very striking and that is that oil prices are not rising this year at the same rate as natural gas

Or, at least, that is what the history of the last 27 years says. In them, November (in eight different years) and December (in another eight) were the months in which natural gas most frequently reached its maximum price of the year. In October that happened four times.

In the remaining seven years, the highest price peak has occurred irregularly, in January (three times), February (once), May (twice) and even July (once). Hence, probabilistically (frequently) speaking, the months of November and December seem the most plausible for the maximum price to occur: between the two they accumulate a frequency of almost 60%.

But there is something very striking and that is that oil prices are not rising this year at the same rate as natural gas, which means that the price of gas is well above where it was before the pandemic (150% more expensive). today, and at the beginning of October 188% more) while that of Brent oil is only 28% above the pre-pandemic level.

And that is a very extreme situation since the price of oil and the price of natural gas tend to court each other, in such a way that neither in annual nor biennial periods is there almost never (or never) such a large divergence.

This makes a significant correction in the price of natural gas very likely, although it cannot be ruled out that the convergence between the two could be caused by a sharp rise in the price of oil, but that it would occur with a stagnation in the price of gas so that it would be possible.

At this point it already seems that it is taken for granted that this coming winter we will be in the worst of all worlds in terms of gas and electricity supply

Which, in turn, except for serious problems in the Middle East or other producers, seems unlikely in an environment of slowdown in the world economy.

It gives the feeling that the panic of shortages is playing tricks, not because gas reserves are not very low, which they are, but because at this point it seems that it is taken for granted that this coming winter we will be in the worst of all worlds when it comes to gas and electricity supply.

And usually when that’s the case, there is usually a sudden change in trend. It would suffice for an agreement to be reached on the opening of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline; that Algeria resume or soften its relations with Morocco or that the world economy slow down faster than it is doing for this change in trend to materialize.

If he hasn’t already done so since October 5. What is a bizarre bet where they exist, but what, despite its low probability of 15% it can make sense. After all, the probability that Biden would win the presidency over Trump, despite the fact that all US presidents tend to repeat terms, was just as low…

Artist's impression of strontium emerging from a merger of neutron stars.

Metagestion dismisses its CEO and ‘burns’ its third executive team in three years

The manager owned by the largest shareholder of the Montebalito construction company finalizes the return as CEO of Carlos Flores.

Miguel Méndez, in an archive photo of Metagestion.

Metamanagement increases your problems. The independent fund manager, one of the oldest in Spain, has dismissed its general manager, Miguel Méndez, after the poor results harvested in its two main strategies, especially in the one that has to do with the international stock market. It is the third executive team that ‘burns’ in three years. As Invertia has learned, the firm completes the return as CEO of Carlos Flores, who was already its president for just over a year between 2019 and 2020.

The two flagships of Metagestion are the funds MetavalueIberian equities, and International Metavalue, which invests in stocks from around the world. The first only rises 2.5% so far this year, compared to a revaluation of 10% in its index. The photo in the second is even worse. lose more than one -17%, while its comparable index rises 21.2%. Quite a burden, being in the last positions of the ranking.

Méndez has not been able to turn the situation around and has been dismissed for José Alberto Barreras, owner and president of Metagestion. Barriers is in turn the majority shareholder of the construction company Montebalitowhich is listed on the Continuous Market and whose personal fortune is managed by the manager that is under the umbrella of the construction group.

Carlos Flores.

Carlos Flores.
Metamanagement.

But the outputs in Metagestion do not end there. Another of the fund managers, closely linked to Méndez, has submitted his resignation. Is about Julian Lirolaaccording to sources close to the investment firm.

The question that investors are now asking is: who manages these and the rest of the house’s funds? The only manager left on staff is Ignatius Salido, since Alfonso Batalla left the daily management of the funds last December to take charge of the personal investments of the construction businessman. However, the firm has already opened a selection process to find replacements.

Flores, a fundamental profile

In these comings and goings of executives and managers, everything seems to indicate that it will be Carlos Flores who will take charge of the manager from now on, who is closing his contract in the absence of the last fringes. Flores arrived with Méndez in a double managerial signing in the summer of 2019. The first was given the presidency with commercial tasks and the aspiration to internationalize the firm, and the second depended on the general management with responsibilities for the products and investments of its wallets.

but both They collided from the first minute. Flores had a marked character as a long-term fundamental analyst, compared to technical analysis and trading of short term imposed by Méndez. That particular internal battle resulted in the departure of the first shortly after arriving. But now Barreras has pulled the agenda and has asked him to come back, with room to reintroduce the old philosophy of the house, which was long-term and, even, very dedicated to the value investing.

Flores has worked for firms such as ICBC Standard Bank, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs or Deutsche Bank, in positions related to the structuring of derivatives, sale of fixed income and currencies or financing and risk solutions, among others. Currently, he is a Managing Partner of Stormharbour Securities.

Madrid Stock Exchange.

Madrid Stock Exchange.
Europe Press.

Metagestion is responsible for more than 475 million euros in investment funds, according to Inverco with June data, although it managed more than 600 million precisely two years ago, very close to maximums, when it incorporated Méndez and Flores in the first stage of this. The lack of credibility before the investment community due to its constant rotation of teams, the bump in profitability and the Covid-19 crisis have formed the perfect storm for the shop. None of the parties involved have responded to the questions of this newspaper.

And, if he hasn’t lost more clients in this time, it’s because he keeps a collaboration agreement with the OCU,your main customer. OCU Inversiones recommends the Metagestion funds among its partners, although it is not a formal agreement, several of the sources consulted testify.

Horos and Beka fished in rough waters

The truth is that Metagestion has always been a manager with many changes in its leadership. But what we have experienced in the last three years has been a true roller coaster. In the summer of 2018, Javier Ruiz -at that time, Director of Investments-, Alejandro Martín and Miguel Rodríguez they went to Horos Asset Management as majority partners, which was started by José María Concejo, who for a few months -at the beginning of 2017- had also been CEO of Metagestion.

Today, your background Horos Value Iberia is the most profitable among those who invest in the stock markets of Spain and Portugal, with a rise in the year of more than 22%, surpassing its comparable Metavalor by practically 2,000 basis points.

The team that replaced them, made up of Fernando Cifuentes (a veteran of Metagestion) and Javier Martín, ended up joining Beka Finance in 2019 for its Asset Management division. Cifuentes is the director of Fondos Abiertos and Martín, the director of Investments.

There are numerous voices inside and outside that criticize the interference and personalism of Barreras, more an expert in real estate than anything else, in the daily administration of the manager, hindering the work of its executive teams. Despite the fact that he has had several offers to sell the investment firm, all of them have been rejected by him or the negotiations have been broken by the other, given the high price claims that the construction businessman has.

One of his daughters, Anabel Barreras, advises him however sell part of the capital -around 20% would be willing- to some external investment group, in such a way that it would give them financial lung and help them in the professionalization of the manager while Barreras father could continue flying over it but without an executive position. We will have to be attentive to see what happens in this new stage.

According to the firm itself, which has confirmed through an official statement the appointment of Flores after the news published by this newspaper, his total assets amount to more than 550 million if pensions and other portfolios are taken into account. “In this new stage, Metagestion maintains its objective of business growth focused on four fundamental lines: the growth in assets of the entity’s historical funds, the constitution of a new fund in Luxembourg to accommodate international business, the opening of an office in Barcelona and the start-up of the division of private and corporate portfolio management recently approved by the CNMV”, they explain from the manager.

El Español maintains its record with 79.5 million users and grows 93% in one year

The number of page views reached 277.1 million during the month of May, the second of total confinement.

Unique users of EL ESPAÑOL in the last thirteen months.

THE SPANISH managed to maintain its historical audience record in May for the second consecutive month. This newspaper registered 79.5 million unique users, remaining as informative reference during the coronavirus crisis, thanks to its great social, political and economic coverage of the pandemic.

According to figures collected by Google Analytics, In the second month of confinement, this newspaper reached 79,455,113 visitors, which means a growth of 92.9% compared to the 41.2 million registered in May of last year. In one year, EL ESPAÑOL has added more than 38 million unique new users.

These figures confirm the great coverage of this newspaper since the beginning of the coronavirus outbreak, with public service content to help Spaniards confined to their homes. Health, citizen, social, political, economic, technological, cultural and sports information that has focused on telling this crisis from all perspectives. An interest that has been maintained at the beginning of the de-escalation.

Regarding the number of sessions, these grew by 99.8% from 80.5 million in May 2019 to 160.9% million last month. The number of page views grew by 71.1% from 162 million to the current 277.1 million.

The growth of THE SPANISH in May it also moved to its users who visit it from a Spanish IP, the indicator that advertisers value the most. In this case, this newspaper registered 40.9 million unique users, 69.9% more than the 24.1 million a year ago.

Mexico was the second country of origin for our readers in May with 10 million unique users (a growth of 113% year-on-year), followed by Argentina with 5.7 million (an improvement of 140%), Colombia with 4.3 million (122% more), Chili with 3.1 million (an increase of 119%) and Peru with 2.7 million users and a growth of 136% in one year.

for local markets, Madrid led with 8.6 million unique users (a growth of Four. Five% in a year), followed by Barcelona, with 4.3 million (+36%), Seville, with 2.5 million (+48%) and Valencia, with 2.1 million unique users and a growth of 59%.

Among the most read stories of May we find “Most of those affected by ERTE will have to ‘return’ part of their benefit in 2021“, an history about Edward Ortega; “The 10 reasons that have led Nissan to leave Barcelona”a guide produced by Arthur Raised; “Cobi’, the quarrelsome colonel: Diego Pérez de los Cobos, the civil guard who at the age of 28 stood up to Roldánby Andros Lozano and Jorge Garcia Badia; Y “The patrimonial mess of Ortega Smith in Asturias: a ‘factory’ that is houses, lots and €2,500 in the bank”, of Diego Rodriguez.

In the most viewed we also find “The script of Sánchez and Iglesias to remove power from Felipe VI and use the emeritus as Franco”, an information of Miguel Angel Mellado; “Iglesias begins to say goodbye to Moncloa”, a column of Christian Fields; Surprise in Brussels at the Government’s resignation to finance Health with the 25,000 million from the MEDE, of Juan Sanhermelando; Y “Waiting list to watch the Iglesias house: 5 of the agents of the sentry box have already been promoted to sergeant”, of Brais Cedeira.

Triple audience control

THE SPANISH maintains triple control over its audience figures. The total number of unique users, visits and page views is counted by Google Analytics, measurement platform of the technology giant approved internationally. This registry provides all kinds of data on the origin, profile and behavior of the audience.

OJD Interactive, digital subsidiary of OJD, is the one who certifies and audits this measurement. This subsidiary is in charge of controlling the figures of more than 300 digital communication media in Spainendorsing the audiences measured by external companies.

Finally, Comscore carries out a specific measurement of traffic in Spain for this newspaper, eliminating duplicities. In this meter, EL ESPAÑOL is already the most read digital native newspaper with more than 22 million unique users, a place that holds the last ten consecutive months.

OJD Interactive, digital subsidiary of OJD, is the one who certifies and audits this measurement. This subsidiary is in charge of controlling the figures of more than 300 digital communication media in Spainendorsing the audiences measured by external companies.

Finally, Comscore carries out a specific measurement of traffic in Spain for this newspaper, eliminating duplicities. In this meter, EL ESPAÑOL is already the most read digital native newspaper with more than 22 million unique users, a place that holds the last ten consecutive months.

OJD Interactive, digital subsidiary of OJD, is the one who certifies and audits this measurement. This subsidiary is in charge of controlling the figures of more than 300 digital communication media in Spainendorsing the audiences measured by external companies.

Finally, Comscore carries out a specific measurement of traffic in Spain for this newspaper, eliminating duplicities. In this meter, EL ESPAÑOL is already the most read digital native newspaper with more than 22 million unique users, a place that holds the last ten consecutive months.

SpainMedia presents its new corporate identity

In this renewal of the editorial group, the new ‘claim’ of the publisher is incorporated into the logo: Brands, Influence & Data.

Andrés Rodríguez, founder of SpainMedia

SpainMedia presents the new brand and a new location on Almagro street, an economic and business benchmark in the capital. The new image represents an evolution in the company’s positioning “from a vision marked by a passion for magazines, where brands, influence and content join events, books and differential actions”.

“Today we present our new identity and new logo that reflects our reality. We want to continue being able to do risky and different things that inspire enthusiasm in our readers and our clients”, he pointed out. Andrés Rodríguez, president of SpainMedia.

In this renewal, the new logo is incorporated claim from the publisher: Brands, Influence & Data, which visualizes the digital commitment of the company responsible for the T brandsapas and Forbes.

In the same way, SpainMedia inaugurates its new corporate headquarters, on the fourth floor of an emblematic building located at number 23 on Calle Almagro in Madrid, in the heart of Madrid, within the axis of influence that makes up Calle Almagro and Paseo de la Castilian.

Founded by the journalist Andrés Rodríguez in March 2007, the publishing group has gained a prestigious and profitable position in the lifestyle publications market, in paper and digital formats.

In these more than 10 years, SpainMedia has edited Esquire, Harper’s Bazaar, Robb Report, Forbes, L’Officiel, Tapas, T Magazine and is a founding partner of El Español. In addition, in 2018 Andrés Rodriguez received the First Amendment Award by the Eisenhower Fellowship Association to the best editor.

Bottlenecks and inflation

Whoever gets inflation right will hold the key to the winning asset pick.

Euro coins.

Everyone talks about bottlenecks, but no one explains why they have occurred, much less “bottlenecks” to say how long they can last.

But you have to get wet, because it is a fundamental question when it comes to predicting what the level of inflation may be in the medium term, which is the mother of all battles when it comes to investing now in the financial markets. Whoever gets inflation right will hold the key to the winning asset pick, which is what defines the result of a portfolio of funds. Much more than the selection of managers.

If inflation is going to remain high for a long time, certain assets will perform better. Some will even greatly benefit from your presence. If we go back to the pre-pandemic situation, others will work just fine. The difference can be abysmal.

I will explain bottlenecks with an example: imagine you have a business that has been closed during the lockdown. Of course, he does not have a warehouse full of products, since he does not know what the demand will be when the reopening takes place. And more when the majority of economists, analysts, tweeters and influencers they tell him that after the pandemic the real crisis will come (forgetting that we have indebted the next generations up to their eyebrows precisely to avoid it and that the central banks have watered the money system as an antidote).

In the case of a small business, it is easy to adapt if you see that people go out to the streets willing to spend and consume. But imagine when this happens in a mining operation in an emerging country -or directly underdeveloped- that has had to close due to Covid. And the vaccines haven’t even arrived yet. A mining operation is not started just like that. And less in those circumstances. The manufacturing rate of a large factory is not doubled, nor are ships chartered that have been stranded for months, etc., etc.

Whoever gets inflation right will have the key to finding the winning asset selection, which is what defines the result of a portfolio of funds

Also, it is a vicious circle. When merchants or large car manufacturers -or computers, or whatever- see that there are supply problems, they get nervous and buy anywhere and at any price. Not just anyone, but are willing to pay much more. They will see later if they pass it on to the client. The fact is that a certain panic is generated at not being able to meet the demand. And so we have the bottleneck and the inflation it generates.

Clarified this, let’s go with the predictions. The first is that just as the law of supply and demand works to increase prices, it also works to balance supply and demand. In a market economy, when someone wants something and is willing to pay for it, the offer ends up arising. Another thing is the price.

When will equilibrium occur? It is impossible to predict. It is necessary to follow the evolution of the prices of the different components and the advanced economic indicators that affect these products. For example, see how the traffic jams are going in the North American, Chinese or European ports. It is about monitoring the situation –and the prices– of the production and distribution chain in each of its links.

Although there will be a break-even point, current energy prices are the result of a structural decision that will take a long time and cost money

This goes for many things, not so much for energy prices. Although there will be a balance point, current energy prices are the result of a structural decision – the energy transition – that will take a long time and cost money.

What seems clear is that even if we solve the bottlenecks, inflation will be much higher than it was before the pandemic. Although the growth generated for the next two years is of somewhat artificial origin, the result of the mix of monetary and economic stimulus, it will be significant growth.

It does not have to imply high inflation, we will see, but wage pressure is more evident every day, which will be added to the cost of the energy transition. In addition, inflation has a lot to do with sociology: once it is inserted into the minds of consumers, it feeds back.

For investors the conclusion is easy: in the coming months the issue of inflation will continue to be the key to the evolution of the markets and we must know how to handle it. You have to know which assets and sectors benefit from each level of inflation. Because in this the nuances are important: little is not the same as a lot or a lot of inflation.

And in all inflationary scenarios – little, a lot or half a pensioner – you have to avoid bonds and medium- and long-term fixed-income funds like the plague. I said it on May 4 from these same pages, and you see. We call that strategy “The Great Rotation”. Now I insist on it, because the rotation has not ended. It’s probably just started.

*** Víctor Alvargonzález is an independent financial advisor and founding partner of Nextep Finance