Bitcoin continues to fall unchecked on the way to support at $29,500
Bitcoin continues to fall unchecked on the way to support at $29,500

Cryptocurrencies continue to fall at the start of 2022. Investors who entered in the last few months suffer losses of up to 50%.

Physical representation of different cryptocurrencies.

They return the strong corrections in bitcoin extendable to other cryptocurrencies in an environment of widespread corrections in the stock market.

And this is causing investors who are willing to enter this cryptocurrency to take advantage of the current price drop, since they do not see that it has a brake simply get out of the way and quietly let prices bottom first to enter after the start of the rebound.

However, it is highly likely that we will not see that bottom yet as the previous correction ate 55% of its value from its all-time highs and in the current correction we just gave back 50%.

Bitcoin evolution in weekly candles

Bitcoin evolution in weekly candles
Eduardo BolinchesProRealTime

If the current corrections are extended to the same percentage terms with respect to last spring’s correction, it would leave the price close to the lows of that time around $29,500.

The bitcoin would arrive very oversold, in fact, it already is so the bullish reaction can really at any timebut if this price zone is lost, a rather worrying market ceiling figure would be generated because it would launch a scenario of corrective continuity up to $13,000.

A tremendously negative scenario in which none of the investors who have recently bought bitcoins wants to be involved, but with the philosophy that many have of buying as its price drops, it is possible to reach the scenario of having zero liquidity when the ground is actually being made.

The stock market is putting downward pressure on bitcoin pricesbut if we really are seeing the beginning of a bear stock market it is going to be downright difficult for the price of bitcoin not to end up losing the vital support zone of $29,500.

There will be rebounds, but in the same way as those since last November, as in the Nasdaq technology market, they are not able to break the pattern of falling highswe can without any problems reach the drop potential of the double roof that threatens to activate.

High inflation would restrict the number of buyers in the real estate market

Idealista foresees a stabilization of the real estate market by 2022, with rises below the CPI

Protected housing in Madrid.

“One of the aspects that can modify the behavior of the market is the high current inflation and foreseeably in the medium term”. This is one of the main conclusions that Idealista estimates for the next year in the real estate market.

“The increase in the cost of life would suppose a decline in the saving capacity of Spaniardsas well as a lower financing capacity (both due to lack of savings and due to meeting installments with reasonable debt), which would restrict some buyers in the purchase market”, they add.

However, from the portal they describe as a “great unknown” the fact of whether the inflationary period that is now being experienced is transitory or will have second-round effects, by moving to salaries above what was expected. This could make high inflation permanent.

Stabilization

From Idealista they consider that “it does not seem likely” that the ECB will raise rates this year, due to the extremely high level of debt of European countries, and possibly tow the market. “Even so, a scenario of a rate hike of 1% or 2% would not have a significant impact on citizens“, they add.

Looking ahead to next year, they foresee “a scenario of stabilization at current levels, without double-digit growth in most indicators, just as it has happened this year, and with price rises below the CPI“.

With regard to purchases, they will remain above 550,000 units per year. Also, mortgages may hit a stalemate, or a slight drop. “The stabilization of purchases and sales could allow a replacement rate in the second hand that reduces the current tensions and maintains prices during the coming quarters,” they indicate.

The portal indicates that, in this 2021, there has been a “euphoric pattern” in the real estate market. Here are the INE data: increases of up to 40% in sales (exceeding pre-pandemic levels) and year-on-year growth of over 60% in mortgages.

In addition, Idealista has recalled that a significant volume of families change entities to take advantage of the historically low rates currently on the market. “Despite the price war, the banks have not substantially modified the risk criteria, and the effort ratio of new mortgages remains below 35%”. Of course, they do not believe that these data correspond to overheating but that “they are at the reasonable values ​​that they would have reached if the pandemic had not taken place.”

About him stock real estate, from Idealista they have given as an example the different scenarios that live Madrid and Barcelona to show the differences. While in Madrid the offer that a person looking to buy a home in December 2021 finds in Idealista is 14% lower than it was a year ago, in the city of Barcelona they find 3% more.

“In fact, if we compare the data with the minimum of the pandemic in May 2020, the offer in Madrid is only 7% higher, while in Barcelona it grows up to 30%”, he recalled.

Regarding the price, remember that this continues to grow below 5% year-on-year (3.5% in the month of November). The growth in Madrid is even lower (0.2%) and in Barcelona there are still falls (-3%).

roller coaster for rent

The rental has experienced a real “roller coaster” with the outbreak of the pandemic. “In summer we live in an unprecedented situation with a stock which reached highs in early summer, increasing by 137% compared to the pre-coronavirus scenario in Madrid and 107% in Barcelona. When normality begins to settle in July of this year and most of the Ertes end, teleworking becomes a hybrid formula, students and tourists return to the cities, supply begins to fall rapidly, 55% less in Madrid and 68% in Barcelona”.

Madrid has 6% more supply than before March 2020, while in Barcelona it has been reduced by 34%. “Possibly due to the regulation of the rental market in Catalonia and the transfer of homes to the sales market, Barcelona has regressed to the same level of supply it had in 2017while in Madrid it remains in the line in which it would have been if there had not been a pandemic ”, they explain from Idealista.

Regarding rental prices, Idealista has indicated that the situation was similar, since while the market had more supply than ever, prices fell sharply. “In the month of April, prices fell by 16% year-on-year in Barcelona, ​​while in May in Madrid the drop was 13%. The reduction in stock has caused the latest data for the month of November to show a drop of only 1.6% in Barcelona and 4.9% in Madrid, although quarterly increases are already beginning to be observed in both markets”, he stated.

Where to invest in the stock market today: Bankinter, Grifols B, Santander and Neinor Homes

Analysis of the best options to know where to invest now and which are the most profitable investments of the moment.

trading opportunities

The selective Spanish lost 8,700 points in a day of expiration that must recover immediately to prevent fear from taking hold in the market.

If the selective cannot be seen above the long-term moving average that goes through 8,845.50 points, the risk of seeing more profit-taking that extends to 8,591 euros It is very high.

In any case, no matter what happens, we always have a set of values ​​that are doing tremendously well and several of them are worth being in my dashboard. They are in a very important technical momentin addition to having many investors attentive to them.

What should you invest in according to your age?:

1) Bankinter: We need to see closings above 5.18 euros to assess the possibility of continuing towards 5.33 and if you can with them continue towards 5.87 euros.

2) Grifols B: We are waiting for see closures above 11 euros again to assess the force of travel towards 12 euros.

3) Santander: On Friday he lost 3.10 euros, but we are going to give him the margin of today’s session because the value and, the market in general, has been very oversold.

4) Neinor Homes: We will have to be attentive to what happens with the resistance of the 12 euros since it would generate a new buy signal with a target of 12.60 euros.

Evolution of values ​​under monitoring

Evolution of values ​​under monitoring
Eduardo BolinchesVisualChart

Economic nationalism grows dangerously

One of the negative consequences of catastrophes, global crises and national emergencies is the growth of economic nationalism. This perversion of the natural preference and love of each one for their land and their people, has as its base and foundation the fear of the population in the face of this extraordinary and dangerous event and, consequently, the blind handing over of the baton of command to the government by of civil society.

After the 2008 crisis, we could see an increase in the distrust of our Western society towards the markets, especially the financial and banking markets, despite those who, like Daniel Lacalledared to write in his defense, with titles like We the marketswhich did so much good.

However, beyond the economists and journalists who have tried to point out the complicity of the rulers, the wrongdoing of those responsible for monetary policy, the mistaken role of saviors that the central bankers self-appointed, it must be recognized that the battle for the story, we lost it.

The rich, the investors, the freedom of the market, the desire for profit, speculation as the basis of market logic, are ideas reviled, accused and condemned by a large part of the population, worldwide. The appearance on the international agenda of climate change has finished presenting economic progress as the cause of the destruction of life on earth.

The rich, the investors, the freedom of the market, the desire for profit, speculation as the basis of the logic of the market, are reviled ideas

The pandemic and the subsequent crisis are generating a deepening of this drift in public opinion. As a preliminary step, the tensions between the United States and the Chinese giant, the strange position of Europe in this situation, began to exacerbate the attitudes of a less moderate right that claimed economic sovereignty. Look for “ours”. But what we are witnessing on social media in 2021 is much worse.

Supporters of the once more liberal economic party, according to what they themselves boasted on networks, today recriminate a person like Juan Ramon Rallo, who, apparently, has become a dangerous “stateless person” in their eyes. I imagine that I must look like the Pasionaria to them. “The only way to defend the workers from your dirty hands and those of the exploiting businessmen is through state control. You liberals would sell your father for a day’s wages.”

Those words do not come from a podemita profile, but from a person clearly sympathetic to Vox, who was responding to a criticism by Juan Ramón Rallo of the union associated with the party of abascal, Solidarity. Not the worst thing Rallo has been told, of course. It has no more significance, in that sense.

I am more concerned about the reflection of the businessman and friend, Miguel Garcia Tormo: “Falangism has returned, and is still the same as socialism.” A very true phrase that is corroborated by writings of recognized Falangists such as Jose Garrido San Romanpresident of the national socialist union UNT and deputy secretary general of the Spanish Falange and the JONS.

In this sense, Garrido establishes as current economic principles of his movement, among others, the nationalization of public services, the prohibition of speculation and usury, the nationalization of banking, the intervention of the market based on indicative planning ( in the purest Francoist style), or trade protectionism.

The second part of Miguel García Tormo’s comment is even more revealing. Faced with an insidious tweet stating “You like Chinese liberalism better”, Miguel replied: “Chinese socialism is tremendously nationalist, the Falangists would probably love it”. Effectively. What comes from China is tariff manipulation to maintain the leading role in the international economic balance, economic control for the good of the nation, and above all, that fear of the other, that need to defend oneself, to protect oneself economically.

We return to the mercantilism of the 17th century, to the dictatorship’s distrustful gaze abroad, to the control of prices, profits, investment, because economic freedom implies opening up, exposing oneself, competing, improving, seeking excellence. A horror. Much better to protect yourself, even if it is at the expense of the consumer, who is the taxpayer, those of us who finance messianic ideas.

Nor is it that government policies help: energy prices, Covid border control, the manipulation of information that confuses and frightens the population, the singling out of those who do not think the same, the deconstruction of the judicial system.

They say that tyrants prefer ignorant peoples. There is something better: ignorant and afraid citizens. The extraordinarily politicized educational system, which follows a spurious and empty agenda, penalizes the new generations and weighs down the economy, but ensures indoctrinated voters. The degradation of the institutions derived from these situations captures our attention that does not look at what is happening in the real economy.

While we academics ask ourselves if we are facing a conjunctural increase in prices, which will pass in less than a year, or a more serious inflationary process, while we continue to wait for the government to allocate European funds “well”, businessmen are drowning before the unstoppable increase in the electricity tariff, the threat of strangulation of the value chain for different reasons (the complicated relationship with China, the shortage of containers, the last fringes of the imbalance caused by Covid).

And, more specifically, Spanish businessmen are considering whether Spanish demand is going to be able to sustain the supply crisis that is definitely hitting the world economy.

The tax increase in our countryexceptional in our environment, the refusal to throw away nuclear energy, despite the fact that it is the cheapest and cleanest solution, and the irresponsible and petty partisan struggle both in the government and in the opposition, leaves those of us who pay the party completely powerless and exposed.

How to combat this dangerous nationalist drift? Perhaps it is necessary to turn to neighboring countries that, like Ireland, for example, have managed to overcome severe crises by adapting the principles of economic freedom to their specific case.

Bad times to bet on competition, which is, paradoxically, the sustainable lifeline of our economy in the long term.


Bitcoin continues to fall unchecked on the way to support at $29,500

Cryptocurrencies continue to fall at the start of 2022. Investors who entered in the last few months suffer losses of up to 50%.

Physical representation of different cryptocurrencies.

They return the strong corrections in bitcoin extendable to other cryptocurrencies in an environment of widespread corrections in the stock market.

And this is causing investors who are willing to enter this cryptocurrency to take advantage of the current price drop, since they do not see that it has a brake simply get out of the way and quietly let prices bottom first to enter after the start of the rebound.

However, it is highly likely that we will not see that bottom yet as the previous correction ate 55% of its value from its all-time highs and in the current correction we just gave back 50%.

Bitcoin evolution in weekly candles

Bitcoin evolution in weekly candles
Eduardo BolinchesProRealTime

If the current corrections are extended to the same percentage terms with respect to last spring’s correction, it would leave the price close to the lows of that time around $29,500.

The bitcoin would arrive very oversold, in fact, it already is so the bullish reaction can really at any timebut if this price zone is lost, a rather worrying market ceiling figure would be generated because it would launch a scenario of corrective continuity up to $13,000.

A tremendously negative scenario in which none of the investors who have recently bought bitcoins wants to be involved, but with the philosophy that many have of buying as its price drops, it is possible to reach the scenario of having zero liquidity when the ground is actually being made.

The stock market is putting downward pressure on bitcoin pricesbut if we really are seeing the start of a bear stock market it is going to be downright difficult for the price of bitcoin not to end up losing the vital support zone of $29,500.

There will be rebounds, but in the same way as those since last November, as in the Nasdaq technology market, they are not able to break the pattern of falling highswe can without any problems reach the drop potential of the double roof that threatens to activate.