The meters return: the OJD in June and the EGM confirms that it will give data in November

The confinement is over for the data of the main media in Spain.

A rotary press of a paper newspaper in a stock image

The main gauges of media audiences have begun their de-escalation. As confirmed invested, Enter (OJD) hopes to return in June to certify the diffusion of its print media and the AIMC (EGM) it will begin its field work in September, to have data in November.

In this way, the new normal will be able to have data from all media and communication media in the coming weeks. Let us remember that the Office for the Justification of Dissemination (OJD) allowed its associates to suspend control of its dissemination since mid-March this year.

Most of the headlines claimed “exceptional effects” of the coronavirus crisis and the confinement that prevented newspapers from being distributed normally. Since the state of alarm was decreed, printed newspapers have had difficulty deliver their mastheads to their subscribers and sell copies at newsstands.

In the sector it is recognized that during these two weeks the diffusion fell very significantly, and in a very abnormal way, so they preferred to exclude this distribution so as not to “contaminate” the sample for the month of March. A situation that has been maintained throughout the state of alarm, including the months of April and June.

However, these exceptional circumstances end with the end of the state of alarm that ends on June 21. In this way, industry sources indicate that the publishers could no longer allege these extraordinary causes and indicate that with certainty, it will return to normal and the printed newspapers will be measured again in the last week of June.

General Media Study

In this sense, July will be the first month in which a full month will be counted again, after February of this year. We are, therefore, facing the longest period of absence of measurement: four months.

In the case of General Media Study (EGM), On March 16, and taking into account the exceptional situation of Covid-19, the AIMC Board of Directors decided to temporarily suspend the start of the field work of the second wave of the EGM.

Finally, the Board of Directorsheld at the end of March on an extraordinary basis, decided permanently suspend the second wave of the EGM this year, “given the impossibility of carrying out the field work normally, due to the state of alarm and the related confinement measures.”

Comscore and Kantar

In this sense, from the AIMCthe body that performs the EGM, has been confirmed to invested that the field work will resume in September, so that on November 2 the audience data of the main media corresponding to the third wave will be known again. It will therefore go from the first known wave in April, to the third, without carrying out the second.

During the entire state of alarm, the digital measurements that did not require a physical presence, such as the EGM field study, have been maintained.telephone and face-to-face surveys– and the OJD -which regularly requires visits to the printing centers of the newspapers-.

In this sense, Comscore and Kantar managed to continue certifying internet and television audiences, respectively. Similarly, OJD also continued to audit digital media.

Bottlenecks and inflation

Whoever gets inflation right will hold the key to the winning asset pick.

Euro coins.

Everyone talks about bottlenecks, but no one explains why they have occurred, much less “bottlenecks” to say how long they can last.

But you have to get wet, because it is a fundamental question when it comes to predicting what the level of inflation may be in the medium term, which is the mother of all battles when it comes to investing now in the financial markets. Whoever gets inflation right will hold the key to the winning asset pick, which is what defines the result of a portfolio of funds. Much more than the selection of managers.

If inflation is going to remain high for a long time, certain assets will perform better. Some will even greatly benefit from your presence. If we go back to the pre-pandemic situation, others will work just fine. The difference can be abysmal.

I will explain bottlenecks with an example: imagine you have a business that has been closed during the lockdown. Of course, he does not have a warehouse full of products, since he does not know what the demand will be when the reopening takes place. And more when the majority of economists, analysts, tweeters and influencers they tell him that after the pandemic the real crisis will come (forgetting that we have indebted the next generations up to their eyebrows precisely to avoid it and that the central banks have watered the money system as an antidote).

In the case of a small business, it is easy to adapt if you see that people go out to the streets willing to spend and consume. But imagine when this happens in a mining operation in an emerging country -or directly underdeveloped- that has had to close due to Covid. And the vaccines haven’t even arrived yet. A mining operation is not started just like that. And less in those circumstances. The manufacturing rate of a large factory is not doubled, nor are ships chartered that have been stranded for months, etc., etc.

Whoever gets inflation right will have the key to finding the winning asset selection, which is what defines the result of a portfolio of funds

Also, it is a vicious circle. When merchants or large car manufacturers -or computers, or whatever- see that there are supply problems, they get nervous and buy anywhere and at any price. Not just anyone, but are willing to pay much more. They will see later if they pass it on to the client. The fact is that a certain panic is generated at not being able to meet the demand. And so we have the bottleneck and the inflation it generates.

Clarified this, let’s go with the predictions. The first is that just as the law of supply and demand works to increase prices, it also works to balance supply and demand. In a market economy, when someone wants something and is willing to pay for it, the offer ends up arising. Another thing is the price.

When will equilibrium occur? It is impossible to predict. It is necessary to follow the evolution of the prices of the different components and the advanced economic indicators that affect these products. For example, see how the traffic jams are going in the North American, Chinese or European ports. It is about monitoring the situation –and the prices– of the production and distribution chain in each of its links.

Although there will be a break-even point, current energy prices are the result of a structural decision that will take a long time and cost money

This goes for many things, not so much for energy prices. Although there will be a balance point, current energy prices are the result of a structural decision – the energy transition – that will take a long time and cost money.

What seems clear is that even if we solve the bottlenecks, inflation will be much higher than it was before the pandemic. Although the growth generated for the next two years is of somewhat artificial origin, the result of the mix of monetary and economic stimulus, it will be significant growth.

It does not have to imply high inflation, we will see, but wage pressure is more evident every day, which will be added to the cost of the energy transition. In addition, inflation has a lot to do with sociology: once it is inserted into the minds of consumers, it feeds back.

For investors the conclusion is easy: in the coming months the issue of inflation will continue to be the key to the evolution of the markets and we must know how to handle it. You have to know which assets and sectors benefit from each level of inflation. Because in this the nuances are important: little is not the same as a lot or a lot of inflation.

And in all inflationary scenarios – little, a lot or half a pensioner – you have to avoid bonds and medium- and long-term fixed-income funds like the plague. I said it on May 4 from these same pages, and you see. We call that strategy “The Great Rotation”. Now I insist on it, because the rotation has not ended. It’s probably just started.

*** Víctor Alvargonzález is an independent financial advisor and founding partner of Nextep Finance

Evergrande assures that it will present a restructuring plan in six months

The Chinese real estate developer will seek ways to optimize its financial structure and overcome the collapse of its debt.

Evergrande Group He has held a telephone conference with his creditors this Wednesday in which he has indicated that he plans to present his plan for restructuring within six months. This is stated in a statement sent by the Chinese promoter to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

In the conversation, Evergrande has assured that it has “reiterated” its position that it will evaluate the group’s business conditions with the aim of formulating a restructuring plan that protect “the rights” of all stakeholders.

In this sense, the promoter has urged its auditor to carry out all the preliminary work, while continuing to “listen carefully to the opinions and suggestions of the creditors”.

In any case, the Chinese promoter has warned that both the company’s investors and other types of investors must have “caution” when dealing with company values.

The Chinese real estate conglomerate, which accumulates liabilities of more than 300,000 million dollars (265,586 million euros), recognized in early December that there are no guarantees that you will have the necessary funds to meet its financial obligations.

Soledad Gallego stops directing El País after two years: Javier Moreno will replace her

The change will become effective this Monday when it will be communicated to the newspaper’s editorial office.

Soledad Gallego-Díaz leaves the direction of El País.

loneliness galician leave the address of The country and it does so two years after he replaced Antonio Cano. As confirmed investedthe decision has been made, it will be communicated to the newsroom in the next few hours and it would have taken place by mutual agreement.

The professional would have accused the diary’s leadership attrition in a politically convulsive stage and has decided –in accordance with Prisa management– leave the newspaper 24 months after taking over the leadership.

Together the journalist will also leave the house Maruja Torres and Joaquin Estefania, two histories of the header.

What is surprising is that his replacement will be Xavier Moreno, former director and who replaced Antonio Cano, in a stage that coincided with the government of Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero.

The return of Darkwho in the last five years has been within the organizational chart of the head -as responsible for the School of Journalism of The country and currently director of El País América It is a decision that has surprised more than one within the newspaper.

In May 2006, coinciding with the newspaper’s 30th anniversary, Javier Moreno became the fourth director in the history of The country. He replaced the historical Jesus Ceberio. In February 2007 he elected a committee to undertake the biggest makeover in the newspaper’s 31 years. Also under his direction, the newspaper carried out the first ERE in its history, which ended with 129 layoffs.

Organizational changes

At a time of adjustments and with an ERTE on the table, Moreno’s arrival is not viewed very favorably by the group’s unions.

Under the mandate of Moreno -Chemist by profession- in March 2009 the segregation of The country in three companies: one that brought together the paper and digital newsrooms, both directed by the director of the newspaper, and the marketing area; another administrative services; and a third that brought together the production area.

On June 5 of that year The country posted some pictures of Berlusconi and his guests at his estate in Sardinia as a world exclusive. According to the newspaper, its digital edition broke all records that day with more than three and a half million visits.

under his direction, The country has published exclusives such as the papers of the Department of State of the United States, leaked by Wikileaksor the so-called Barcenas papersrelated to the alleged bonuses, illegal financing and donation structure of the Popular Party of Spain.

Bond Yield Fear Returns: Will Rates Rise in March?

The US bond has multiplied its yield by five in a few months and the stock markets are beginning to tremble.

The word bonds on banknotes and a calculator.

Next week we have an appointment with theUS Federal Reserve (Fed)in which we will learn an update on the plans they have to raise interest rates in this year 2022. And, above all, the market will try to decipher if that rise can begin in the month of March.

Since the last statement, the option that these increases begin in the month of March has been gaining supporters. Even many US analysts are betting that the Fed should make a clear statement of intent with the immediate half-point hike with the intention of restoring its credibility.

However, it must be said that if the Federal Reserve did that, the declines we have seen this week in the stock market would be ridiculous with what would happen if we were faced with such a situation without warning. Rather we would follow the model of the fall of the shares of Netflix more than those of the Nasdaq 100 itself.

Right now, in the minds of investors we have a major disorientation because they really have the feeling that the current corrections that we are experiencing are, as has been the case for years, a new buying opportunity. On the other hand, the proximity of the Fed’s afternoon interest rate hike makes some wonder if there will come a day when this pattern changes, and above all, if that change has already occurred.

The economy begins to show its effects due to high inflation, so the Federal Reserve is forced to raise interest rates that have been at zero for too long. And, every time there has been an attempt to lift those interest rates above 0%, the markets have spoken with decline.

US 2-year bond rate above 1%

US 2-year bond rate above 1%
Eduardo Bolinchesstock charts

This is the result of blowing up a record credit bubble and keeping interest rates at 0% for too long. And what is worse, with the arrival of the pandemic, it allowed many companies that were already imploding at the end of 2019 to refinance their debt at low cost, generating an even bigger bubble.

Afi creates a ‘venture capital’ to invest in Spanish ‘start-ups’ that it will later absorb

The group chaired by Emilio Ontiveros allocates one million euros to invest in up to 15 ‘fintech’, ‘edtech’ or ‘data science’ companies.

Afi headquarters in Madrid.

important initiative of International Financial Analysts (Afi). The consulting and education group chaired by the famous economist Emilio Ontiveros has created a society of venture capital at the corporate level with which you will invest one million euros in up to 15 start-ups Spanish of fintech, edtech either data science in order to integrate their products and services a posteriori. Or even absorb the companies themselves, if necessary.

The vehicle in question has been named as Afi Corporate Venturing. It is 100% owned by Afi, it is a company not regulated by the National Securities Market Commission (CNMV) and, therefore, it will not give entrance to external investors.

The project was born at the initiative of Elizabeth Gayaconsultant for corporate finance in Afi, and Ignatius Astorqui, market analyst. Supervision is carried out by Pablo Manuecopartner responsible for the group’s Corporate area.

Emilio Ontiveros, president of Afi, in a file photo.

Emilio Ontiveros, president of Afi, in a file photo.

“We want to go one step further in our consulting and training efforts by investing in the capital of companies that have the same DNA as Afi”, that is, that have to do with the finance, technology and education, fencing Manueco.

With this initiative, “we have a strategic purpose, not only financial: identify new products and services that we later incorporate into our service offerings and to our clients”.

Up to 250,000 euros per investee

The 180 business consultants that Afi has will be able to support the start-ups invested in various aspects. The group will provide them with knowledge, open commercial doors for them and carry out joint developments with the firms. The areas in which this program will move revolve around fintech, insurtech, wealth management, edtech, analytics Y data science.

The budget with which Afi Corporate Venturing has been endowed amounts to one million euros. It will be invested over the next year or year and a half in the capital of between five and 15 investees, depending on the amount dedicated to each company. The limit that has been set is 250,000 euros per investeeand almost all of them will be based in Spain.

Unlike venture capital funds or venture capital more traditional, the resources come from the afi treasuryso the implementation of the investment program will be “very fast” since they do not have to raise money from any institutional client, private bank or family office as is often the case in this industry.

Among the requirements that must be met by start-ups for Afi to lay her eyes on them, they must be “of very recent creation, in the initial stages of their development, but with at least six months of track record”, and they must have a “business plan, a committed team, a large and growing market size and, above all, an innovative solution”, lists Gaya, one of the program’s creators.

Wall Street retreats cautiously after the announcement that the Fed will raise rates in March

Several New York indices turn negative after learning about the monetary policy decisions of the US central bank.

Wall Street only had eyes this Wednesday for one man: Jerome Powell. The president of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) fulfilled the planned script, but the fact that he has undisguisedly pointed to March for a first rate hike put the market on alert. First-hour previews were clipped and until they became losses in some indices at closing.

Both Powell and the official statement avoided referring explicitly to the third month of the year, but they did insist that “soon” will be the time of raising interest rates. The pressure that the most aggressive members –hawkish– of the institution have been exhibiting in order not to leave the first increase until later in March was interpreted as an unequivocal signal that this time they will take the lead.

After the Fed statement, the main New York indices remained on the rise, but with Powell’s speechmore truffled of references hawkish than usual, ended the peace. Yes, no surprises. The dow jones corrected a bearable 0.38% at the close, to 34,168.1 points. 0.15% left the S&P 500, which saved 4,349.9 points. More volatile, as usual, the nasdaq that came to mark advances of more than 2% ended up saving the honor with a 0.02% up in the 13,542.1 points.

unbalance

Analysts highlighted that one of the points that added more nerves to a market that, in principle, welcomed the decisions of the central entity was its open door to start reducing balance. And it is that the Fed hoards debt securities for no less than 9 trillion dollars.

Although Powell defended tooth and nail that that process will not start until the first rate hikes have been carried out and assessed its impact on the markets and the economy, the sales reached Wall Street. And not just out of fear, but – in an unusual practice – the Fed published a “Principles for reducing the size of the balance sheet” guide along with its traditional communication.

As a consequence, the 10-year bond yield US Treasury rose to 1.876%. An increase of nine basic points that showed that this time the Fed is preparing to withdraw, but with lead feet.

mixed macro

While all the attention was focused on the Federal Reserve, the macroeconomic data that came to light took a very second place. That was the case with the trade balance of goodswhich showed a deficit of 100.96 billion dollars in its preliminary reading for December.

And the same for wholesale inventories that rose 3.6%. Kindest was the fact of sale of newly built homeswhich with 811,000 transactions closed in December beat consensus forecasts.

Corporative accounts

In the corporate arena, it was time to present the accounts to AT&T. His shares fell 8.39% after publishing a net attributable profit of 19,874 million dollars compared to losses of 5,369 million a year ago. Despite the improvement, the numbers remained below consensus estimates.

Kinder was the course taken by the titles of J. P. Morgan, 0.95% higher. To the announcements of the central bank, the entity added a plan for the contracting up to 500 people in Latin America in the next three years. The objective is to gain market share in this region in which it has set its growth objective from its offices in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

Also in green, the session ended without any shock, the titles of microsoft. Advances of 2.85% after having unveiled sales of more than 50,000 million dollars for the first time in its second fiscal quarter.

Due to the red of the declines, the shares of boeing. 4.77% fell, avoiding their lowest levels of the day after having published net losses of 4,290 million dollars at the end of 2021, which, however, meant improving their red numbers from the previous year by 66.5%.

Enerside launches to BME Growth with a capital increase of 40 million

The Catalan company specializing in the promotion of photovoltaic parks comes from BME’s Pre-Market Environment.

One of the photovoltaic parks promoted by Enerside.

the renewable Enerside Energy sets course for BME Growth. The Catalan company specializing in the promotion of photovoltaic parks announced on Monday its intention to carry out a capital increase for “approximately” 40 million euros as a prelude to his debut.

The objective of the operation is to obtain funds “to finance its business plan”. The Incorporation Information Document (DIIM) is still being drafted for presentation to the supervisors of the Spanish stock market for SMEs. The operation will be led by Alantra as a global coordinating and placement entity.

In addition, for the task of placing the new shares, the services of Rent 4 Bank Y Andbank Spain. In addition, the first of these two will also act as agent for the offer and, subsequently, as liquidity provider. The entity will also act as registered advisor, while in legal matters it will have the support of Latham & Watkins and Linklaters.

Business history

The origins of Enerside date back to 2007. Since then, has built photovoltaic installations in Spain, Chile and Brazil. Currently, it is developing 126 MW for third parties. Likewise, it manages the operation and maintenance of 21 MW in solar parks for third parties, most of which are awarded from parks built by the company.

Today, the future listed company has a pipeline of 4.5GW under development, highly qualified and with an advanced degree of maturity. A total of 3 GW, 70% of its current pipeline of projects under development, have reached or will reach during 2022-2023, the RTB phase. In addition, it has 3.4 GW more in inorganic growth opportunities identified.

The CEO and founding partner of Enerside, Jotham Grangehas highlighted that “until now we have financed ourselves fundamentally from private capital increases, but the company is at a very mature moment and needs to make more relevant investments to Carry out the construction of your IPP projects“.

Along these lines, the founder has highlighted the path followed since joining BME’s Pre-Market Environment “a year and a half ago”.

Brussels approves 150 million aid against the digital divide in Spain

The money will go to the deployment of mobile networks in areas that lack 4G coverage.

Competition Commissioner Margrethe Vestager.

The European Commission has given the green light this Wednesday to a public aid plan designed by Spain, worth 150 million euros, whose objective is to promote the deployment of mobile networks in areas lacking 4G coverage. The money will come from the Next Generation European funds awarded to our country. Brussels believes that the measure will contribute to reducing the digital divide and accelerating the digital transition.

“Thanks to this €150 million plan, consumers in those parts of Spain that are currently underserved will have access to higher-speed mobile communications services and will enjoy a better internet connection. This will reduce the digital gap and contribute to economic growthin line with the rules on state aid and without losing sight of the objectives of the European digital transition”, said the vice-president of the Commission and head of Competition, Margrethe Vestager.

The plan will be in force until December 31, 2025 and the aid provided will take the form of direct subsidies. The measure will finance the deployment of passive infrastructures for the provision of mobile communications services that guarantee minimum speeds of 30 megabits per second (Mbps) for downloading and 10 Mbps for uploading in areas of Spain where there is currently no 4G mobile coverage with speeds Minimum of 10 Mbps download and 3 Mbps upload.

“The objective of the regime is to face the digital divide in Spain, stimulate interest in living and investing in rural areasstimulate economic growth, as well as preserve and create new jobs in the most fragile regions from a structural point of view”, as reported by the Community Executive in a statement.

Brussels considers that this plan is “necessary and proportionate, and also has sufficient safeguards to limit undue distortions of competition“.

In particular, the aid cannot be used to fulfill the coverage obligations linked to the rights of use of the mobile spectrum. Also, municipalities with more than 10,000 inhabitants are excluded from the planas well as the areas in which the deployment of mobile networks is already underway or is planned during the next three years.

Under these conditions, the Commission has concluded that the plan proposed by the Spanish authorities is in line with EU rules on state aid.

This is Welcome AM, the new manager of the former Credit Suisse bankers

The firm is pending approval by the CNMV and AFA, will provide service from 500,000 euros and will not have any industrial partner.

From left to right: Gregorio Oyaga, Ignacio Laviña, Victoria Coca and Javier Alonso, founders of Welcome AM.

The most fashionable investment firm that will be in the capital in the coming months is called Welcome Asset Management. It is the new independent manager that the former Credit Suisse bankers who resigned during the summer have set up, with Ignacio Lavina and Javier Alonso in front. Among its initial objectives is to carry out, among four and seven signings between now and the end of the year. Your target audience? Clients with an estate greater than 500,000 euros.

Last September 1, Andbank Spain closed the sale of 100% of the shares of the Wealthprivat manager (the former Degroof Petercam) to Welcome AM Spain. This operation, of which the price has not been disclosed and which only includes the sale of the management company’s license to operate, without assets or clients, is pending approval by the National Securities Market Commission (CNMV) and the Andorran Financial Authority (AFA).

Wealthprivat Asset Management SGIIC is the commercial name that Andbank provided to the manager of Degroof Petercam Spain once the acquisition of this entity materialized in February of this year.

Javier Alonso, Welcome Asset Management.

Javier Alonso, Welcome Asset Management.
Silvia Pérez, THE SPANISH.

The founding team of shop receive to invested in its recently opened offices on Paseo de la Castellana. Their leitmotiv“putting technology and talent at the service of the client, as well as the exhaustiveness of the teams when planning investment processes and asset allocation”.

Initially, the eight members of the founding team are: Gregorio Oyaga, Victoria Coca, Daniel Vaquero, Alfonso Guerra, Maria Montalbán, Virginia Rivero and Laviña and Alonso themselves. All of them from Credit Suisse Spain.

three general directions

The manager will be articulated around three general directions: Businessunder the command of Laviña and where bankers like Guerra will hang; Investments, with Alonso as the first sword and followed by Oyaga, Coca and Vaquero; Y Operationswhich does not yet have a person in charge, but the first members of the team of middle and back office, Montalban and Rivero. However, this third address will be “priority” for Welcome AM. The partners want to give “great importance to legal certainty,” they say in conversation with this newspaper.

Ignacio Laviña, Welcome Asset Management.

Ignacio Laviña, Welcome Asset Management.
Silvia Pérez, THE SPANISH.

No recruitment targets have been set, but they do hope to have a staff of between 12 and 15 professionals at the end of 2021whose number would rise to the twenties in mid-2022. Among those who arrive, there will be private bankers, asset managers and, of course, members of operations and risks and the person in charge of this area.

Although in the summer the possibility was rumored that they had the financial support of some family office or industrial partner, in the end it will not be like that. 100% of the shareholding will be private capital of the partners founders and other partners who join, although not all the professionals on the staff will be partners.

Waiting to receive the relevant authorizations before the end of the year. They have embarked on this project because, after recent purchases in the asset and wealth management sector by Mutua Madrileña, Mapfre or Singular Bank, among other groups, “We have detected a gap in the niche of independent firms that combine managers and bankers, this segment is becoming an orphan and there are already very few.”

External collaborators

Its three main services will be the management of collective investment institutions, discretionary portfolio mandates and independent advice. His strong point will be the realization of the asset allocation and the selection of the best investment funds from third-party entities.

They will not have a sicav, as is usual in wealth management companies, but they do aspire to attract mandates from external sicavs for their delegated management. Nor will they have their own investment funds, at least in a first stage. Although Alonso advances that, most likely, in the medium term they will launch a treasury fund and some other niche fund where they have enough experience to manage them themselves.

The founding team of Welcome AM poses for Invertia.

The founding team of Welcome AM poses for Invertia.
Silvia Pérez, THE SPANISH.

Another aspect to note is that they will be multi-custodian and the clients that operate with them will not have to leave their entities of origin. They will collaborate with various depository banks, including inversionAlthough it is owned by Banca March, in practice it is the intermediary and custody platform that Andbank also uses since it bought the personal and private banking businesses from the Marches. Soon they will close more agreements with other depositories.

And, when they have their own funds, they will use Allfunds to distribute them to other entities.

With the current environment of zero and negative rates, unlisted alternative assets (venture capital, renewable energies, hotels, agribusiness…) also take on special relevance. For this type of investment, reserved exclusively for customers with the highest volume, they will leverage external partners. The same scheme of subcontracting of expert firms will continue for possible corporate and investment banking operations of their clients.

In the longer term, jumping out of Spain and hiring financial agents is on his mind. But, for now, the first milestone will be to start operating at the end of this year or the beginning of next.